Archive for February, 2010

Forex vs shares spread betting- Article 1

Ever been in the situation where you have 3 forex entries….all against the same currency? So what do you do now? Enter them all knowing that they will probably all go in your direction or all against? Or what about if there are no entries so you scan every currency (only about 12 on my list) and every time-frame to try find a trade … knowing you are breaking all the rules?

These articles will give you a bit of insight into how I have diversified my trading portfolio and spread my risk using shares spread betting.

Basic Differences: Forex vs shares spread betting

  • In Forex your spread is fixed no matter what the length of your trade.
  • In Share trades there is an expiry date and your spread is related to that date.
    eg: Below you can see Googles (NASDAQ:GOOG) quote and you will notice the spreads get larger the further the period (expiry) is away from the current date.
    • I find I don’t have to search for trades any more. I day-trade the NYSE (+-3500 companies) and the LSE (+-2500 companies). I know what you thinking – now i have created a new problem! With so many stocks how do I find my trade setups? I can’t search through them all. In the upcoming articles I will explain my methods of identifying possible trades.

    I hope this helps you understand the basic differences between these 2 trading types.

    Next Article:

    Getting Started: I will show you how to get up-and-running, which charts and broker I choose and why.

    February 27, 2010 Post Under Technical - Read More

    Traders share

    February 26, 2010 Post Under Trading Psychology - Read More

    Momentum

    February 25, 2010 Post Under Technical - Read More

    Pitintro

    February 25, 2010 Post Under Trading Psychology - Read More

    EUR/USD analysis

    Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

    Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3800
    Key G7 resistance levels: 1.3650, 1.3720, 1.3800

    Counter-trend opportunities:

    Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

    Today’s trade suggestion:
    Interesting situation…Last week’s weekly candle formed a “Doji” just about at the 618 retracement level (see weekly chart) and the euro is more oversold than it has been for two years. However, bottoms often take a few weeks to form properly, and negative EU sentiment might still weigh on the euro for another week or two. It’s tempting to consider the weekly direction reversed, but I’d prefer to wait for another weekly reversal candle for confirmation. Until then, and whilst below 1.3800, G7 remains bearish. Resistance levels are at 1.3650 (where we are now), 1.3720 and 1.3800. There are small signs of reversal as I’m writing this report, with an hourly “hanging man” candle at the 1.3650 resistance, the two MA’s right where we are and an overbought stochastic. Try tiny shorts for a target of circa 1.3550.

    Summary:
    Sell near 1.3650 (or above if it fails) target 1.3550.

    February 22, 2010 Post Under Analysis - Read More

    Important Candlestick Patterns

    In this next article brought to you by The Traders Club on using candlestick analysis to predict changes in the forex market,  I will review some of the fundamental candlestick patterns used in forex trading.

    In order to be successful in the financial markets you need to be able to predict when the current market trend is going to change.  The use of candlesticks can give you forewarning of a change in market direction but is dependent on the correct interpretation of the candlestick patterns.  There are two types of candles, bullish candlestick patterns that signify an upwards moving market and bearish candlestick patterns that signify and downwards moving market; i.e. with a bullish candle, the closing price is higher than the opening price and visa versa for a bearish candle.

    In any trading situation, the key to being successful is being able to recognise possible trend reversals.  As you become more familiar with the different candle lines and patterns, you will notice how correct interpretation of the candlestick chart offers the trader an early heads up on a possible trend reversal; in fact, the large majority of signals given by candlestick patterns are reversal signals.  As the common goal of any trader is to buy low and sell high (or in the case of short selling, to sell high and buy low), being able to accurately predict when to buy or sell is tantamount to success.

    There are a number of different types of candlestick patterns, too many to discuss in this article but I will review some of my personal favourites for trading off.

    Hammer/Hanging man
    Hanging man/hammer

    The hammer or hanging man candle is a type of spike candlestick pattern.  When found at the top of a trend it is called a hanging man, whilst if found at the bottom of a trend it is called a hammer.  In order for this to be considered a valid reversal signal, it needs to occur at the end of a trend.  When you come across a hanging man at the end of a trend, it is a great entry signal as the absence of a long wick allows you to enter the trade with a much smaller stop loss.

    Shooting star/inverted hammer
    Shooting star/inverted hammer
    When found at the top of a trend, this candlestick pattern is called a shooting star, at the bottom of a trend it is called an inverted hammer.  As before, the appearance of this candle should only be considered a valid reversal signal if it occurs at the end of a trend or at a resistance level.  Like the hanging man above, a valid shooting star allows one to enter a position with a very small stop loss.  Spike high and spike low candlesticks like these are reversal signals at both the top or bottom of a trend.  Surprisingly, the direction of the spike is not important as a reversal signal, but for better risk/reward, I prefer the spike to be in the direction of the reversal so to minimise my stop loss.

    Engulfing candles
    Engulfing pattern
    An engulfing candle is another great reversal candle.  The engulfing candlestick completely covers or engulfs the preceding candlestick, but differs in the direction. Typically, the engulfing candle will cover the entire body of the preceding candle, but in some cases the wick of the candle maybe included when determining the signal.  Note, that the engulfing candlestick does not have to engulf the entire price range of its neighbour, but does need to cover its body.  Engulfing candlesticks are considered to be strong indicators of trend reversal.

    Dark cloud cover and Piercing patterns
    dark cloud cover/piercing pattern
    The dark cloud cover candlestick pattern (top image) is a bearish reversal pattern and is found at the top of a trend.  It is similar to a bearish engulfing pattern except that its body does not completely engulf the previous candle. In order to be considered a dark cloud cover it needs to have retraced at least half way down the body of the previous candle.

    Piercing patterns are the opposite of dark cloud covers and are found at the end of a downwards trend. They are bullish reversal candles, and like the dark cloud cover, for it to be considered valid, it needs to have retraced at least halfway up the preceding candles body.  Piercing patterns and dark cloud covers are more difficult to spot but are reliable indicators of trend reversal.

    These are a few of my favourite candlestick formations that I use in forex trading.  To summarise, the spike candlesticks (shooting star, hammer, hanging man, and inverted hammer) are small bodied candles with long wicks, and when found at the end of a trend provide a good reversal signal.  When the spike is in the direction of the reversal a low risk trade can be taken as the stop loss will be very small.

    Engulfing candlesticks are strong reversal signals and their body completely engulfs the body of the preceding candle but in the opposite direction.

    Dark cloud covers and piercing patterns are found at the end of a trend (dark cloud cover at the top, piercing pattern at the bottom), are in the opposite direction to the previous candle, and their body has retraced at least half the previous candles body.

    February 16, 2010 Post Under Technical - Read More

    When to stop Trading

    February 15, 2010 Post Under Money/Risk Management, Technical - Read More

    Maximise your profit

    February 15, 2010 Post Under Money/Risk Management, Technical - Read More

    EUR/USD analysis

    Update: A decent rally from support put euro up at first resistance near 1.3820 yesterday. Price action is messy and hourly candles have been as large as 120 pips. Probably best to stay out, or try tiny shorts from 1.3800- 1.3850 after clear signs of reversal. Target remains at 1.3600.

    February 10, 2010 Post Under Analysis, Technical - Read More

    Profit Taking

    February 9, 2010 Post Under Money/Risk Management, Technical - Read More