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Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.
Today's trade suggestion: The euro continues its slide down. I wouldn’t call it unrelenting, but it’s steady. Now that 1.4000 has been broken, and we’ve had a daily close below there, the price has reached the 61.8% extension at 1.3850. There won’t be an opportunity to sell today, but if we do reach 1.3850, there’s an excellent chance to try a small counter-trend long trade if we get a clear reversal pattern. Remember that counter-trend trading is riskier, and you should only attempt this with a small position and tight stops. The target for long trades is 1.3980/1.4000 where long trades should be closed while we watch and wait for signs of reversal back to short – to go with the main trend direction. We’ll see what it looks like if and when we get there. Interesting to note that last week’s bearish candle was completely “shaven” No wick on the bottom side. Sometimes that can lead to a dramatic reversal.
Summary: Perhaps try small counter-trend longs at 1.3850, target around 1.4000 (or earlier if it falters). Then watch and wait for an opportunity to sell.
Forex trading: Why most amateur traders fail
Articel submitted by Bill Poulos
One phenomenon that derails amateur Forex traders time and time again is method complexity syndrome. They research a trading method, buy it and the minute they receive it, they jump ahead to what they consider to be “the guts” of the method. In doing so, they completely ignore all of the other aspects of trading, including risk management, discipline, and psychology.
They get into the "guts" of the method only looking for that big, mysterious, slap-your-forehead, jaw-dropping "secret" which will suddenly unlock the mysteries of the Forex universe and make them Master and Commander of every Forex pair. All too often, they find themselves completely disappointed or the "guts" reveal something they'd already heard about (but had not practiced). Amateur traders will then dismiss the method as 'too simple'.
Or, the amateur trader will look for that complicated formula, cryptic combination of indicators and all too often what they actually discover is a set of simple indicators working together in an uncommon way, and they say, "Well I could have done that!" -- and they become disappointed or frustrated, because they wrongly assume that any method MUST BE complex, it can't possible be SIMPLE! So, they shelve the method or return it and complain that it's "not complicated" enough.
This is a serious mistake - because the amateur trader will then repeat this error method after method and they will never take the time to learn and understand the full process of trading.
Don't make this mistake. Understand that most trading methods out there are not complicated. They weave a smaller set of rules together in a simple manner (simple enough that anybody can apply them) but apply them in an uncommon way. Complex systems are for computer geeks and big banks -- if you can't understand something, you can't possibly apply it.
Never skip ahead when learning a powerful new method for trading Forex. Make certain you learn the setup, entry and exit rules (which should exist); that you learn how to protect your trade with stops; and that you learn how to apply your method on a timely basis (be it hourly, daily or weekly) to get the most out of the method and to learn how all facets of what you learn work cooperatively to make you a better trader.
Remember, Simple but Powerful -- using just a few indicators or rules applied in a non-textbook approach -- is the key to getting an edge in the markets.
Scenario Trading:
Although it is one of the first lessons learnt when trading, it is all too often forgotten. Trading with "Context" is critical when trading any time frame. Hopefuly these next three videos help you determine "The Zone"...don't forget to add in the usual S&R and Fibbos etc to give you a real edge...
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